Short term exposure to low level ambient fine particulate matter and natural cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory morbidity among US adults with health insurance: case time series study.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the excess relative and absolute risks of hospital admissions and emergency department visits for natural causes, cardiovascular disease, and respiratory disease associated with daily exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) at concentrations below the new World Health Organization air quality guideline limit among adults with health insurance in the contiguous US. DESIGN: Case time series study. SETTING: US national administrative healthcare claims database. PARTICIPANTS: 50.1 million commercial and Medicare Advantage beneficiaries aged ≥18 years between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2016. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Daily counts of hospital admissions and emergency department visits for natural causes, cardiovascular disease, and respiratory disease based on the primary diagnosis code. RESULTS: During the study period, 10.3 million hospital admissions and 24.1 million emergency department visits occurred for natural causes among 50.1 million adult enrollees across 2939 US counties. The daily PM2.5 levels were below the new WHO guideline limit of 15 µg/m3 for 92.6% of county days (7 360 725 out of 7 949 713). On days when daily PM2.5 levels were below the new WHO air quality guideline limit of 15 µg/m3, an increase of 10 µg/m3 in PM2.5 during the current and previous day was associated with higher risk of hospital admissions for natural causes, with an excess relative risk of 0.91% (95% confidence interval 0.55% to 1.26%), or 1.87 (95% confidence interval 1.14 to 2.59) excess hospital admissions per million enrollees per day. The increased risk of hospital admissions for natural causes was observed exclusively among adults aged ≥65 years and was not evident in younger adults. PM2.5 levels were also statistically significantly associated with relative risk of hospital admissions for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. For emergency department visits, a 10 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 during the current and previous day was associated with respiratory disease, with an excess relative risk of 1.34% (0.73% to 1.94%), or 0.93 (0.52 to 1.35) excess emergency department visits per million enrollees per day. This association was not found for natural causes or cardiovascular disease. The higher risk of emergency department visits for respiratory disease was strongest among middle aged and young adults. CONCLUSIONS: Among US adults with health insurance, exposure to ambient PM2.5 at concentrations below the new WHO air quality guideline limit is statistically significantly associated with higher rates of hospital admissions for natural causes, cardiovascular disease, and respiratory disease, and with emergency department visits for respiratory diseases. These findings constitute an important contribution to the debate about the revision of air quality limits, guidelines, and standards.

The incidence of asthma attributable to temperature variability: An ecological study based on 1990-2019 GBD data.

BACKGROUND: Asthma, the second leading cause of death from chronic respiratory diseases, is associated with climate change, especially temperature changes. It is currently unclear about the relationship between long-term temperature variability and the incidence of asthma on a global scale. METHODS: We used asthma incidence, demographic and socioeconomic data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Results Database, and environmental and geographical statistics from TerraClimate between 1990 and 2019 to determine the association between maximum temperature variability and asthma incidence. We also predicted the incidence of heat-related asthma in the future (2020-2100) under four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs: 126, 245, 370, and 585). RESULTS: Between 1990 and 2019, the global median incidence of asthma was 402.0 per 100,000 with a higher incidence (median: 1380.3 per 100,000) in children under 10 years old. We found that every 1 °C increase in maximum temperature variability increased the risk of asthma globally by 5.0 %, and the effect was robust for individuals living in high-latitude areas or aged from 50 to 70 years. By 2100, the average incidence of asthma is estimated to be reduced by 95.55 %, 79.32 %, and 40.02 % under the SSP126, SSP245, and SSP370 scenarios, respectively, compared to the SSP585 at latitudes >60°. CONCLUSION: Our study provides evidence that maximum temperature variability is associated with asthma incidence. These findings suggest that implementing stricter mitigation and adaptation strategies may be importment in reducing asthma cases caused by climate change.

Association Between Ambient Heat and Risk of Emergency Department Visits for Mental Health Among US Adults, 2010 to 2019.

IMPORTANCE: The implications of extreme heat for physical health outcomes have been well documented. However, the association between elevated ambient temperature and specific mental health conditions remains poorly understood. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between ambient heat and mental health-related emergency department (ED) visits in the contiguous US among adults overall and among potentially sensitive subgroups. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This case-crossover study used medical claims data obtained from OptumLabs Data Warehouse (OLDW) to identify claims for ED visits with a primary or secondary discharge psychiatric diagnosis during warm-season months (May to September) from 2010 through 2019. Claims for adults aged 18 years or older with commercial or Medicare Advantage health insurance who were living in 2775 US counties were included in the analysis. Emergency department visits were excluded if the Clinical Classifications Software code indicated that the visits were for screening for mental health outcomes and impulse control disorders. EXPOSURES: County-specific daily maximum ambient temperature on a continuous scale was estimated using the Parameter-Elevation Relationships on Independent Slopes model. Extreme heat was defined as the 95th percentile of the county-specific warm-season temperature distribution. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The daily incidence rate of cause-specific mental health diagnoses and a composite end point of any mental health diagnosis were assessed by identifying ED visit claims using primary and secondary discharge diagnosis International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision and International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision codes. Conditional logistic regression models were used to estimate the incidence rate ratio (IRR) and 95% CIs for the association between daily temperature and incidence rates of ED visits. RESULTS: Data from 3 496 762 ED visits among 2 243 395 unique individuals were identified (56.8% [1 274 456] women; mean [SD] age, 51.0 [18.8] years); of these individuals, 14.3% were aged 18 to 26 years, 25.6% were aged 27 to 44 years, 33.3% were aged 45 to 64 years, and 26.8% were aged 65 years or older. Days of extreme heat were associated with an IRR of 1.08 (95% CI, 1.07-1.09) for ED visits for any mental health condition. Associations between extreme heat and ED visits were found for specific mental health conditions, including substance use disorders (IRR, 1.08; 95% CI, 1.07-1.10); anxiety, stress-related, and somatoform disorders (IRR, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.05-1.09); mood disorders (IRR, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.05-1.09); schizophrenia, schizotypal, and delusional disorders (IRR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.03-1.07); self-harm (IRR, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.01-1.12); and childhood-onset behavioral disorders (IRR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.05-1.18). In addition, associations were higher among men (IRR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.08-1.12) and in the US Northeast (IRR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.07-1.13), Midwest (IRR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.09-1.13), and Northwest (IRR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.03-1.21) regions. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this case-crossover study of a large population of US adults with health insurance, days of extreme heat were associated with higher rates of mental health-related ED visits. This finding may be informative for clinicians providing mental health services during periods of extreme heat to prepare for increases in health service needs when times of extreme heat are anticipated.

Ambient heat and risks of emergency department visits among adults in the United States: time stratified case crossover study.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the association between ambient heat and visits to the emergency department (ED) for any cause and for cause specific conditions in the conterminous United States among adults with health insurance. DESIGN: Time stratified case crossover analyses with distributed lag non-linear models. SETTING: US nationwide administrative healthcare claims database. PARTICIPANTS: All commercial and Medicare Advantage beneficiaries (74.2 million) aged 18 years and older between May and September 2010 to 2019. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Daily rates of ED visits for any cause, heat related illness, renal disease, cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, and mental disorders based on discharge diagnosis codes. RESULTS: 21 996 670 ED visits were recorded among adults with health insurance living in 2939 US counties. Days of extreme heat-defined as the 95th centile of the local warm season (May through September) temperature distribution (at 34.4°C v 14.9°C national average level)-were associated with a 7.8% (95% confidence interval 7.3% to 8.2%) excess relative risk of ED visits for any cause, 66.3% (60.2% to 72.7%) for heat related illness, 30.4% (23.4% to 37.8%) for renal disease, and 7.9% (5.2% to 10.7%) for mental disorders. Days of extreme heat were associated with an excess absolute risk of ED visits for heat related illness of 24.3 (95% confidence interval 22.9 to 25.7) per 100 000 people at risk per day. Heat was not associated with a higher risk of ED visits for cardiovascular or respiratory diseases. Associations were more pronounced among men and in counties in the north east of the US or with a continental climate. CONCLUSIONS: Among both younger and older adults, days of extreme heat are associated with a higher risk of ED visits for any cause, heat related illness, renal disease, and mental disorders. These results suggest that the adverse health effects of extreme heat are not limited to older adults and carry important implications for the health of adults across the age spectrum.

Global burden attributable to high sodium intake from 1990 to 2019.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: High sodium intake is associated with a higher risk of a wide range of diseases. We aimed to estimate the pattern and trend of the global disease burden associated with high sodium intake from 1990 to 2019. METHODS AND RESULTS: We obtained numbers and rates of death and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) attributable to high sodium intake by sex, socio-demographic index, and country from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. We calculated the estimated annual percentage change to evaluate the age-standardized rate (ASR) of the burden attributable to high sodium intake between 1990 and 2019. We further calculated the contribution of population growth, population aging, and age-specific rates of death and DALY to the net change in the total number of deaths and DALYs attributable to high sodium intake. From 1990 to 2019, global age-standardized rates of death and DALY attributable to high sodium intake substantially decreased for both sexes. However, there were significant increases in the total numbers of deaths and DALYs attributable to high sodium intake, which were driven by population growth and population aging. The attribution of population growth and population aging varied widely across countries, with a higher contribution of population growth in most developing countries and a higher contribution of population aging in countries with slow population growth. CONCLUSIONS: Although the global burden attributable to high sodium intake in terms of age-standardized rate declined from 1990 to 2019, the absolute burden increased significantly, which was driven by population growth and population aging.

Heat warnings, mortality, and hospital admissions among older adults in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Heat warnings are issued in advance of forecast extreme heat events, yet little evidence is available regarding their effectiveness in reducing heat-related illness and death. We estimated the association of heat warnings and advisories (collectively, "alerts") issued by the United States National Weather Service with all-cause mortality and cause-specific hospitalizations among Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 years and older in 2,817 counties, 2006-2016. METHODS: In each county, we compared days with heat alerts to days without heat alerts, matched on daily maximum heat index and month. We used conditional Poisson regression models stratified on county, adjusting for year, day of week, federal holidays, and lagged daily maximum heat index. RESULTS: We identified a matched non-heat alert day for 92,029 heat alert days in 2,817 counties, or 54.6% of all heat alert days during the study period. Contrary to expectations, heat alerts were not associated with lower risk of mortality (RR: 1.005 [95% CI: 0.997, 1.013]). However, heat alerts were associated with higher risk of hospitalization for fluid and electrolyte disorders (RR: 1.040 [95% CI: 1.015, 1.065]) and heat stroke (RR: 1.094 [95% CI: 1.038, 1.152]). Results were similar in sensitivity analyses additionally adjusting for same-day heat index, ozone, and PM2.5. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that heat alerts are not associated with lower risk of mortality but may be associated with higher rates of hospitalization for fluid and electrolyte disorders and heat stroke, potentially suggesting that heat alerts lead more individuals to seek or access care.

A comparative study of the disease burden attributable to PM2.5 in China, Japan and South Korea from 1990 to 2017.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is one of the leading contributors to disease burden. However, little is known about the spatial and temporal trends of the disease burden attributable to PM2.5 in the three major economies in East Asia. We aimed to estimate the patterns and temporal variations of the disease burden attributable to PM2.5 in China, Japan, and South Korea from 1990 to 2017. METHODS: We obtained data on disease burden attributable to PM2.5 from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2017. We retrieved the numbers and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate (ASDR) of disease attributable to PM2.5 by age, sex, socio-demographic index (SDI), and country. We used percentage change and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) to assess the trends of ASMR and ASDR attributable to PM2.5 between 1990 and 2017. We further calculated the contribution of population growth, population aging, and changes in mortality or DALYs rate to the net changes in total deaths and DALYs associated with PM2.5. RESULTS: We found considerable differences in the disease burden attributable to PM2.5 in China, Japan, and South Korea. In 2017, the ASMR and ASDR of disease attributable to PM2.5 in China were 49.37 (95% UI: 41.18, 57.5) per 100,000 population and 1065.9 (95% UI: 891.28, 1237.38) per 100,000 population, respectively, which was about four times higher than that of Japan and twice higher than that of South Korea. Regardless of country, the ASMR and ASDR were more pronounced among elders and males. From 1990 to 2017, the declines in ASMR and ASDR were more pronounced in Japan and South Korea than in China. The changes in PM2.5 associated total deaths and DALYs between 1990 and 2017 were the combined effects of population aging, population growth, and changes in mortality or DALY rate, resulting in a net increase in total deaths and DALYs in China but little changes in Japan and South Korea. CONCLUSIONS: PM2.5 still contributed to significant disease burdens in 2017, although age-standardized disease burden has declined from 1990 to 2017. There has been an increasing trend in total deaths and DALYs in China, which was primarily driven by population aging.

Assessment of age, period, and cohort effects of lung cancer incidence in Hong Kong and projection up to 2030 based on changing demographics.

The burden of lung cancer in Hong Kong continues to rise. We analyzed trends in lung cancer incidence and associations with age, period, and cohort from 1985 to 2019, made projections up to 2030 and examined the drivers of lung cancer incidence. We used age-period-cohort modeling to estimate age, period, and cohort effects on lung cancer incidence rates in Hong Kong between 1985 and 2019. We projected lung cancer incidence in Hong Kong from 2020 to 2030 using Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis with an integrated nested Laplace approximation. We decomposed changes in the number of lung cancer cases into population growth, population aging, and epidemiologic changes. From 1985 to 2019, the number of lung cancer incident cases in Hong Kong continued to rise, yet the age-standardized incidence rates have declined for both sexes while have fluctuated for females over the past two decades. The overall annual percentage change from 1985 to 2019 was -2.29 (95% CI, -2.53 to -2.05) for males and -0.86 (95% CI, -1.06 to -0.65) for females. Age-specific annual percentages for both sexes showed a decreasing trend in all age groups and were more pronounced for females older than 65 years and males younger than 65 years. Period effects for both sexes showed a similar monotonic downward pattern, with the downward trend slowing for females after 2000. The cohort effect declined monotonically for males and started to plateau for females after the 1945 birth cohort. It was projected that the incident cases of lung cancer in Hong Kong would continue to increase, with 4,435 male cases and 3,561 female cases in 2030. Demographic decomposition suggested that population growth and population aging play an important role in the change of lung cancer cases. Much progress has been made in reducing the incidence of lung cancer in Hong Kong, but this has been offset by demographic changes that will continue to increase the incident cases of lung cancer in Hong Kong, especially among females. There is an urgent need for continued public health policies and clinical programs for risk factor control and necessary screening.

Global burden of ischemic heart disease attributable to ambient PM2.5 pollution from 1990 to 2017.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to estimate the spatial and temporal variation in the PM2.5 associated ischemic heart disease (IHD) burden on a global scale between 1990 and 2017. METHODS: We obtained data on IHD attributable to PM2.5 from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2017. We used the numbers and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate (ASDR) of IHD attributable to PM2.5 by sex, socio-demographic index (SDI), and countries. We calculated the estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) to assess the trends of ASMR and ASDR between 1990 and 2017. We further calculated the contribution of population growth, population aging, and mortality or DALYs changes to the total IHD deaths and DALYs attributable to PM2.5 between 1990 and 2017. RESULTS: In 2017, IHD attributable to PM2.5 resulted in 977,140 (95% UI: 838,900-1123,240) deaths and 21.93 million (95% UI: 18.88-25.37) DALYs globally. There has been a significant change of attributable IHD burden, from being a common burden to one that mainly affects low and middle-SDI countries in Asia, Oceania and sub-Saharan Africa. This global change has occurred as a consequence of opposing trends in high-SDI countries and in Asia, Oceania and sub-Saharan Africa, which has led to some Asian countries having the highest IHD burden attributable to PM2.5 in 2017. CONCLUSIONS: Although the global age-standardized burden of IHD attributable to PM2.5 has decreased from 1990 to 2017, there has been an unpleasant increase in some low and middle-income countries, mainly in Asia, Oceania, and Africa.

Trends of stroke attributable to high sodium intake at the global, regional, and national levels from 1990 to 2019: a population-based study.

Objectives: High sodium intake is associated with a higher risk of stroke. However, global patterns and trends in the stroke burden attributable to high sodium intake have not been systematically assessed.Methods: We used the numbers and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate (ASDR) of the stroke burden attributable to high sodium intake by sex, socio-demographic index (SDI), and country, obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019. We calculated the estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) to assess the trends of ASMR and ASDR of the disease burden attributable to high sodium intake between 1990 and 2019. We further calculated the contribution of changes in population growth, population aging, and mortality or DALYs to changes in total stroke deaths and DALYs.Results: From 1990 to 2019, the global burden of stroke attributable to high sodium intake changed significantly, from a universal burden in Asia and Europe to one that mainly affected some countries in Asia and Oceania. This change was due to the combined effects of demographic changes and changes in mortality or DALY rates. For countries in Asia and Oceania, the effects of population aging and population growth outweighed the effects of declining mortality and DALY rates, resulting in an absolute increase in strokes attributable to high sodium intake.Conclusion: Although the age-standardized global stroke burden attributable to high sodium intake has declined from 1990 to 2019, the burdens in some Asia and Oceania countries, particularly China, remain high.

Low willingness to pay for pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among men who have sex with men (MSM) in China.

BACKGROUND: Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is recommended as an HIV prevention strategy for key populations, in particular men who have sex with men (MSM). However, the willingness to pay market rate for PrEP is largely unknown. This study aimed to investigate the willingness to pay for PrEP and its associated factors among MSM living in Mainland China. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted among 689 MSM who were recruited through a gay-friendly health consulting service center in Chengdu, China during 2018-2019. We collected information on participants' willingness to pay for PrEP and its potential correlates (e.g., PrEP awareness and acceptability, perceived risk of HIV infection) using a structured questionnaire. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were used for data analyses. RESULTS: Only 14.1% of respondents indicated they would not pay any money for PrEP, around half (49.3%) would like to pay $14-84 per month, and very few (6.8%) would like to pay ≥283 per month (market rate). We found that PrEP awareness (unadjusted odds ratio (ORu) = 1.41; 95% CI: 1.01-1.97), acceptability (ORu =1.20; 95% CI: 1.07-1.34), perceived PrEP adherence (ORu =1.23; 95% CI: 1.08-1.41), and perceived PrEP benefit in reducing condom use (ORu =1.29; 95% CI: 1.07-1.55) were all associated with participants' willingness to pay the market rate for PrEP. Other facilitators of PrEP pay willingness included full disclosure of sexual orientation to health professionals, high HIV literacy, and a high degree of HIV disclosure with sex partners. CONCLUSIONS: The overall willingness to pay for the market rate of PrEP was low among this urban sample of Chinese MSM. Programs aiming to promote PrEP pay willingness should provide enhanced counseling to improve PrEP-related cognition, deliver accurate HIV/PrEP information to increase health literacy, and decrease stigma towards sexual minorities to develop trust with health professionals.

Ambient PM2.5 and O3 and their combined effects on prevalence of presbyopia among the elderly: A cross-sectional study in six low- and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: Ambient air pollutant directly contacts with the eyes, however, the effect of ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) on vision impairment, such as presbyopia, has been kept largely unknown. METHODS: We surveyed a total of 36,620 participants aged 50 years and above in six low- and middle-income countries. Ambient annual concentrations of PM2.5 and O3 for the residential community were estimated using satellite data and chemical transport model. A mixed effects model was utilized to assess the effects of ambient PM2.5 and O3 on presbyopia, as well as their combined effects. RESULTS: A total of 13,841 presbyopia cases were identified among the participants with a prevalence rate of 41.17%. For both PM2.5 and O3, we found a J-shaped exposure-response relationship with the threshold being identified at 15 µg/m3 for PM2.5 and 55 µg/m3 for O3. The odds ratio (OR) of presbyopia was 1.15 (95% CI: 1.09, 1.21) for each 10 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 above 15 µg/m3 and 1.37 (95% CI: 1.23, 1.54) for O3 above 55 µg/m3 after adjusting for various potential confounding factors. There appeared to be a synergistic interaction between ambient PM2.5 and O3 on presbyopia in the additive model, the combined effect was significantly larger than the sum of their individual effects, with a synergistic index of 2.39. CONCLUSION: This study supports that exposures to ambient PM2.5 and O3 might be important risk factors of presbyopia among old adults, and simultaneously exposure to high level of the two pollutants could intensify their individual effects.